How close is a code-breaking quantum computer?
Logical-qubit records are climbing fast, but breaking RSA-2048 needs thousands of logical (millions of physical) qubits with low error rates held for hours. Our read: real, but not imminent. (Our opinion, not investment advice.)
A “cryptographically-relevant” quantum computer (CRQC) — one that could break the RSA-2048 encryption securing much of the internet — is the milestone everyone implicitly benchmarks against. Logical-qubit records are climbing fast, which makes the threat feel imminent.
Our read: real, but not imminent. Credible estimates put the requirement at thousands of logical qubits (which today means millions of physical qubits), running low-error operations continuously for hours. Recent demonstrations are measured in tens of logical qubits for short runs — extraordinary science, but many orders of magnitude short.
The right response is preparation, not panic. Organizations are already migrating to post-quantum cryptography precisely because the timeline, while uncertain, is long enough to act on and too important to ignore. Tracking physical and logical qubit counts side by side is the clearest way to see how much of that gap remains.
This is our interpretation of the public data, not investment or security advice.