Quantum supremacy (Sycamore)
2019-1053-qubit chip did in minutes a task framed as intractable for classical supercomputers.
How close are we to a useful quantum computer?
The single most intuitive view — current position against the end goal, on a log scale.
Standings by actor, within this field only.
Clear-cut events: crossed or not crossed.
53-qubit chip did in minutes a task framed as intractable for classical supercomputers.
Atom Computing (1,180) and IBM Condor (1,121) both crossed 1,000 physical qubits.
First programmable logical processor running algorithms on dozens of error-corrected qubits.
Errors fell as the code grew — the long-sought sign that scaling can work.
First two-qubit gate fidelity past 99.99% — comfortable headroom over the EC threshold.
Fault-tolerant architecture running algorithms on up to 96 logical qubits.
IBM is spinning off Anderon, a $2B (≈$1B CHIPS Act + $1B IBM) 300mm superconducting-qubit wafer fab in Albany, NY — open to other quantum vendors as a neutral 'TSMC for quantum.'
Quantinuum launched Helios: 98 trapped-ion (barium-137) physical qubits with 99.92% two-qubit-gate fidelity and all-to-all (QCCD) connectivity, running up to 48 error-corrected logical qubits — its most accurate commercial system.
Peer-reviewed in Nature: error correction (carbon & tesseract codes) cut logical error rates up to 800x below the underlying physical qubits on Quantinuum trapped-ion hardware - the largest physical-to-logical gap yet independently validated, with repeated mid-circuit correction across up to 12 logical qubits.
Caltech trapped 6,100 cesium atoms in optical tweezers — roughly 10× prior arrays — holding superposition ~13 s with 99.98% single-qubit accuracy and shuttling atoms without decohering, a key enabler for error correction. Published in Nature.
IonQ sold its first 6th-gen, chip-based 256-qubit system (to the University of Cambridge) and posted record Q1 revenue of $64.7M (+755% YoY); its roadmap targets 10,000 networked qubits.
QuEra, Harvard and MIT showed qLDPC codes encoding 1,156 logical qubits into 2,304 physical (≈2:1, >50% rate), simulated into the "teraquop" regime (~1 error per trillion ops) — versus the hundreds-to-one ratio typical today.
Atom Computing demonstrated sustained multi-round quantum error correction with a toric code on neutral atoms — logical error rates falling as the system scales up (sub-threshold), a first for the neutral-atom platform.
Rigetti launched its 84-qubit Ankaa-3 superconducting system with a 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity — a major reliability jump from a redesigned qubit layout and Alternating-Bias Assisted Annealing, available on Rigetti's cloud and later AWS Braket / Azure.
Quantinuum priced an upsized IPO at $60/share, raising $1.68B on Nasdaq (QNT) at a ~$15.7B market value — the quantum industry's first mega-IPO. Honeywell retains ~48% voting power.
Millions of physical / thousands of logical qubits needed to break RSA-2048 — not yet in sight.
Every figure links to a primary source. We publish no invented scores. Tracker numbers are neutral; analysis is labelled separately.